Notes on 2019 Coronavirus

quarantine day 8

SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is the virus. COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) is the disease.

There are about 7.6 billion people on the planet.
United States Census Bureau

John Hopkins University hosts a map with coronavirus COVID-19 data.
At April, 6th, 2020, 6:55pm there were, worldwide:
1,309,439 confirmed cases
72,638 deaths
273,546 recovered
John Hopkins University

The US population is about 329 million.
United States Census Bureau

2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates
CDC estimates from October 1, 2019 to March 28, 2020 there have been:
39,000,000 – 55,000,000 flu illnesses
18,000,000 – 26,000,000 flu medical visits
400,000 – 730,000 flu hospitalizations
24,000 – 63,000 flu deaths
Center for Disease Control and Prevention



fever or feverish
sore throat
runny or stuffy nose
muscle or body aches
sometimes vomiting and diarrhea (more common in children than adults)
Most people recover in a few days to two weeks.
Often comes on suddenly.
Center for Disease Control and Prevention


shortness of breath
Mild to severe.
Appears 2-14 days after exposure, based on MERS-CoV.
Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Often forgotten: loss of smell or taste.
Mindy Weisberger – Senior Writer, Live Science
Dr Jack Kruse

“In general, the clinical presentation has involved fever in 83% to 98% of patients, dry cough in 76% to 82%, and fatigue or myalgias in 11% to 44%. Other symptoms have been reported, such as headache, sore throat, abdominal pain, and diarrhea.”
JAMA, February 28, 2020: COVID-19—New Insights on a Rapidly Changing Epidemic

“All COVID-19 cases reported through February 11, 2020 were extracted from China’s Infectious Disease Information System. … 44,672 (61.8%) confirmed cases … Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30–79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild (80.9%). A total of 1,023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%.”
China CDC, February, 2020: Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020

Death Rate

Yearly death rate of the flu is maximum 0.1%, every winter.
How Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg sees the current Corona pandemic. Published on Mar 13, 2020.

“A total of 1,023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%.”
Variance by region: “patients in Hubei Province had a >7-fold higher case fatality rate at 2.9% compared to patients in other provinces (0.4%)”
China CDC, February, 2020: Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020

“1.4% who died”
New England Journal of Medicine, February 28, 2020: Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

The numbers of the John Hopkins map suggest a death rate of about 5.5%.
John Hopkins University

“Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.”
“A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.”
Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article. Wall Street Journal: Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?


To determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the “basic reproduction number” or R0 (R-nought): an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person. R0 is not necessarily a constant number: varians by location, depending on factors as how often people come into contact with each other and the efforts taken to reduce viral spread.

“although still preliminary, is estimated between 2 and 3, suggesting a higher pandemic potential than SARS.”
JAMA, February 28, 2020: COVID-19—New Insights on a Rapidly Changing Epidemic

“on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick from flu each season, with a range of between 3% and 11%, depending on the season”
Center for Disease Control and Prevention


Seasonal flu’s are not to be confused with pandemic flu’s, or a global outbreak of a new flu virus that is very different from the strains that typically circulate.

“The most recent flu pandemic, for example, was caused by a flu virus that hopped from pigs to humans in 2009. Commonly known as the swine flu, that pandemic killed more than 200,000 people. The devastating 1918 flu pandemic, which killed 30 million to 50 million people worldwide, had its roots in birds.”
Yasemin Saplakoglu Live Science

“These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1.”
“The H1N1 virus that caused that pandemic is now a regular human flu virus and continues to circulate seasonally worldwide.”
Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Using the world population number and the (totally suspect) confirmed cases number of the John Hopkins map, about 0.017% of the world population is infected.

Power Laws, or Exponential Growth

An Indian king liked to play chess. He invited visitors to play against him. One day a visitor accepted. The king offered any reward if he won. The king lost and the visitor won. The visitor modestly asked for a bit of rice. The king was to give rice in this manner: put one piece of rice on the first square of the chessboard and double it for every subsequent square until the last square was reached. The initial squares go like this: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16… Modest in the beginning. The final square holds over 18,000,000,000,000,000,000 grains of rice, or about 210 billion tons.

More than the annual worldwide rice production by orders of magnitude. In 2014, 741.5 million tonnes.

Every new square requires more rice than everything that came before combined. Or, everything that was produced in all of history (in this case the previous squares) and more, now needs to be produced on the new square.

For more, and more examples, eg coal, bacteria, and population growth: Arithmetic, Population and Energy; a lecture by Dr. Albert A. Bartlett

Infection rates follow power laws.


CDC recommendations to prevent spread are generally same for coronaviruses and flu viruses:
wash hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds
avoid touching eyes, nose, mouth with unwashed hands
stay away from sick people
stay away from work when sick
clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces
Center for Disease Control and Prevention

This is basic hygiene and hygiene courtesy. Other measures are now in effect in many places, like “lockdown” or “social distancing”.


Who is measuring the effect of isolation? Who is tracking depression and suicide in these times?

Will the long-term health cost be worse? Who will pay for that? Will healthcare improve after this? I’ve heard about doctors and nurses getting fired. I’ve heard departments of doctors and nurses with nothing to do.


“Both human and animal studies report large immunological changes with exposure to environmental levels of electromagnetic fields (EMFs). Some of these exposure levels are equivalent to those of e.g. wireless technologies in daily life.”
“It is possible that chronic provocation by exposure to EMF can lead to immune dysfunction, chronic allergic responses, inflammatory responses and ill health if they occur on a continuing basis over time. This is an important area for future research.”
“Specific findings from studies on exposures to various types of modern equipment and/or EMFs report over-reaction of the immune system; morphological alterations of immune cells; profound increases in mast cells in the upper skin layers, increased degranulation of mast cells and larger size of mast cells in electrohypersensitive individuals; presence of biological markers for inflammation that are sensitive to EMF exposure at non-thermal levels; changes in lymphocyte viability; decreased count of NK cells; decreased count of T lymphocytes; negative effects on pregnancy (uteroplacental circulatory disturbances and placental dysfunction with possible risks to pregnancy); suppressed or impaired immune function; and inflammatory responses which can ultimately result in cellular, tissue and organ damage.”
“The current international public safety limits for EMFs do not appear to be sufficiently protective of public health at all”
BioInitiative Report 2012, Section 8: Evidence For Effects On Immune Function

Electricity and life. Negative effects on animals, like bees, and on humans, like heart disease, cancer and diabetes.
“The Invisible Rainbow” by Arthur Firstenberg

Human immunity is weakened by our electrical lives. Viruses are harder to handle.

Wuhan was the first fully 5G city. New York has 5G. Are we seeing disproportionally more cases there? Another reason for the lack of cases in Africa?


Activation of the Epstein-Barr virus genome in latently infected human lymphoid cells by 50 Hz electromagnetic fields. “Exposure of Akata cells, a human lymphoid cell line latently infected by the EBV genome, to a 50 Hz EMF resulted in an increased number of cells expressing the virus early antigens. This finding provides additional evidence that DNA can be modulated by a magnetic field.”
J Environ Pathol Toxicol Oncol. 1997;16(2-3):205-7: Exposure to a 50 Hz electromagnetic field induces activation of the Epstein-Barr virus genome in latently infected human lymphoid cells

The electric power grid in Europe cycles at 50 Hz. Weakened immune system, activation of virus… Sounds like a bad combination.

About 100 different types of viruses change constantly. Acute respiratory diseases: normally 7-15% of viruses are coronaviruses. In Wuhan there is the biggest safety lab for viruses in whole China. New virus discovered in Wuhan. Data is uploaded to a database. Database is accessible worldwide. In Berlin, try to develop test to measure new coronavirus. Mr. Drosten sends protocol to WHO. Test was quickly accepted. Normally a test is a medical procedure and must go through rigorous test. What does it really say? What does it measure? Is inhouse-test of Charite clinic. There were no validated tests and panic arose. Decision to just use test everywhere. Virologist can’t say if virus is dangerous. Can only detect it, see if it is different from others. Need observational data. Can look to previous years, look to mortality rate of people died of virus. While looking to specific virus, eg coronavirus, can look at total population. Occurrence in total population is about 8-10% of a virus that makes them sick. If look to medical practices, will find more cases. If look to hospitals, will find more cases. Which section of population looked at, expect to find 7-15% coronavirus every time a test is done. Can not say if died of coronavirus or if died of something else and happened to have coronavirus. Eg look at testing in Italy, where were they taken and how used? If look at terminal cases, then corona death rate rise. Just because it looked like it. Yearly death rate of the flu is maximum 0.1%, every winter. In Germany, 2000-3000 deaths of people dying of flu, but happen to have coronavirus, is to be expected. Far of at time of video. Hype created in China. Face recognition installed, thermometers controlled traffic on Chinese streets. International consequences. Hard for critics to say that nothing is wrong. The emperor is naked. What is missing is a rational way to look at things. How have you found out that the virus is dangerous? How was it before? Did we have the same thing last year? Is it something new?
How Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg sees the current Corona pandemic. Published on Mar 13, 2020.


Problems with data collection and testing.

“the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.”
“COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.”
Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Alex Berenson

Coding for COVID-deaths is suspect: “expected to result in” and “assumed to have caused or contributed to death “. Other conditions like COPD (a respiratory condition) are considered secondary. Confirmed lab tests are not required.

See also Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg video: Where are tests taken? What are the conditions? How does the test work?

The Sun

“As the current crisis unfolds, governments are enforcing quarantine and isolation, and public gatherings are being discouraged. Health officials took the same approach 100 years ago, when influenza was spreading around the world. The results were mixed.”
“Put simply, medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better than those treated indoors.”
“Research shows that outdoor air is a natural disinfectant. Fresh air can kill the flu virus and other harmful germs. Equally, sunlight is germicidal and there is now evidence it can kill the flu virus.”
“As with the current Covid-19 outbreak, most of the victims of so-called `Spanish flu’ did not die from influenza: they died of pneumonia and other complications.”
“Open-air therapy, as it was known, was widely used on casualties from the Western Front. And it became the treatment of choice for another common and often deadly respiratory infection of the time; tuberculosis. … The open-air regimen remained popular until antibiotics replaced it in the 1950s.”
“But by the time the scientists made their discoveries, antibiotic therapy had replaced open-air treatment. Since then the germicidal effects of fresh air have not featured in infection control, or hospital design. Yet harmful bacteria have become increasingly resistant to antibiotics.”
“During the First World War, military surgeons routinely used sunlight to heal infected wounds.[9] They knew it was a disinfectant. What they didn’t know is that one advantage of placing patients outside in the sun is they can synthesise vitamin D in their skin … ow vitamin D levels are now linked to respiratory infections and may increase susceptibility to influenza.[10] Also, our body’s biological rhythms appear to influence how we resist infections.[11] New research suggests they can alter our inflammatory response to the flu virus.[12]”
Dr. Richard Hobday is an independent researcher working in the fields of infection control, public health and building design. He is the author of `The Healing Sun’.
Published on March 10th. Coronavirus and the Sun: a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

Experts ask why there are few cases in Africa. Bad reporting is not suspected. Isolation is offered as an explanation. From the above article of Dr. Richard Hobday, we can paint a different angle. Guess the strong sunlight has something to do with it? How much clothing do they wear or how much time do they spend indoors, where they can’t make vitamin D?
Published February 27th. Virus enigma: Experts ask why Africa seems to have few cases


Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi ( is a specialist in microbiology and infectionepidemiology. He was a professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz and head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene and one of the most cited research scientists in German history.

“We are afraid that 1 million infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths per day over the next 100 days. But we do not realise that 20, 30, 40 or 100 patients positive for normal coronaviruses are already dying every day.

[The government’s anti-COVID19 measures] are grotesque, absurd and very dangerous […] The life expectancy of millions is being shortened. The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people. The consequences on medical care are profound. Already services to patients in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling. All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.

All these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide based on nothing but a spook.”

– []

Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg ( is a German physician specialising in pulmonology, politician and former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. In 2009 he called for an inquiry into alleged conflicts of interest surrounding the EU response to the Swine Flu pandemic.

“Politicians are being courted by scientists…scientists who want to be important to get money for their institutions. Scientists who just swim along in the mainstream and want their part of it […] And what is missing right now is a rational way of looking at things.

We should be asking questions like “How did you find out this virus was dangerous?”, “How was it before?”, “Didn’t we have the same thing last year?”, “Is it even something new?”

That’s missing.”

– []

Dr. Joel Kettner ( is professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases.

“I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I’m not talking about the pandemic, because I’ve seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don’t always know what they are. But I’ve never seen this reaction, and I’m trying to understand why.


I worry about the message to the public, about the fear of coming into contact with people, being in the same space as people, shaking their hands, having meetings with people. I worry about many, many consequences related to that.


In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective.”

– []

Dr. John Ioannidis ( Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS). He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine. As a physician, scientist and author he has made contributions to evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, data science and clinical research. In addition, he pioneered the field of meta-research. He has shown that much of the published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence.

“Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.


Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes.


If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.”

– “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data”, Stat News, 17th March 2020 []

Dr. Yoram Lass ( is an Israeli physician, politician and former Director General of the Health Ministry. He also worked as Associate Dean of the Tel Aviv University Medical School and during the 1980s presented the science-based television show Tatzpit.

“Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington.


In every country, more people die from regular flu compared with those who die from the coronavirus.


…there is a very good example that we all forget: the swine flu in 2009. That was a virus that reached the world from Mexico and until today there is no vaccination against it. But what? At that time there was no Facebook or there maybe was but it was still in its infancy. The coronavirus, in contrast, is a virus with public relations.

Whoever thinks that governments end viruses is wrong.”

– Interview in Globes, March 22nd 2020 []

Dr. Pietro Vernazza ( is a Swiss physician specialising Infectious Diseases at the Cantonal Hospital St. Gallen and Professor of Health Policy.

“We have reliable figures from Italy and a work by epidemiologists, which has been published in the renowned science journal ‹Science›, which examined the spread in China. This makes it clear that around 85 percent of all infections have occurred without anyone noticing the infection. 90 percent of the deceased patients are verifiably over 70 years old, 50 percent over 80 years.


In Italy, one in ten people diagnosed die, according to the findings of the Science publication, that is statistically one of every 1,000 people infected. Each individual case is tragic, but often – similar to the flu season – it affects people who are at the end of their lives.


If we close the schools, we will prevent the children from quickly becoming immune.


We should better integrate the scientific facts into the political decisions.”

– Interview in St. Galler Tagblatt, 22nd March 2020

Frank Ulrich Montgomery ( is German radiologist, former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association.

“I’m not a fan of lockdown. Anyone who imposes something like this must also say when and how to pick it up again. Since we have to assume that the virus will be with us for a long time, I wonder when we will return to normal? You can’t keep schools and daycare centers closed until the end of the year. Because it will take at least that long until we have a vaccine. Italy has imposed a lockdown and has the opposite effect. They quickly reached their capacity limits, but did not slow down the virus spread within the lockdown.”

– Interview in General Anzeiger, 18th March 2020 []

Prof. Hendrik Streeck ( is a German HIV researcher, epidemiologist and clinical trialist. He is professor of virology, and the director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research, at Bonn University.

“The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1. The special thing is that Sars-CoV-2 replicates in the upper throat area and is therefore much more infectious because the virus jumps from throat to throat, so to speak. But that is also an advantage: Because Sars-1 replicates in the deep lungs, it is not so infectious, but it definitely gets on the lungs, which makes it more dangerous.


You also have to take into account that the Sars-CoV-2 deaths in Germany were exclusively old people. In Heinsberg, for example, a 78-year-old man with previous illnesses died of heart failure, and that without Sars-2 lung involvement. Since he was infected, he naturally appears in the Covid 19 statistics. But the question is whether he would not have died anyway, even without Sars-2.”

– Interview in Frankfurter Allgemeine, 16th March 2020 []

Dr. Yanis Roussel et. al. ( A team of researchers from the Institut Hospitalo-universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille and the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille, conducting a peer-reviewed study on Coronavirus mortality for the government of France under the ‘Investments for the Future’ programme.

“The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.


This study compared the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries (1.3%) with the mortality rate of common coronaviruses identified in AP-HM patients (0.8%) from 1 January 2013 to 2 March 2020. Chi-squared test was performed, and the P-value was 0.11 (not significant).


…it should be noted that systematic studies of other coronaviruses (but not yet for SARS-CoV-2) have found that the percentage of asymptomatic carriers is equal to or even higher than the percentage of symptomatic patients. The same data for SARS-CoV-2 may soon be available, which will further reduce the relative risk associated with this specific pathology.”

– “SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data”, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, 19th March 2020 []

Dr. David Katz ( is an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center.

“I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near-total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long-lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the first order.”

– “Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?”, New York Times, 20th March 2020 []

Michael T. Osterholm ( is regents professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

“Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold.


[T]he best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.”

– “Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure”, Washington Post, 21st March 2020 []

Dr. Peter Goetzsche (øtzsche) is Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration. He has written several books on corruption in the field of medicine and the power of big pharmaceutical companies.

“Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do.

No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole world permanently.

Should it turn out that the epidemic wanes before long, there will be a queue of people wanting to take credit for this. And we can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time. But remember the joke about tigers. “Why do you blow the horn?” “To keep the tigers away.” “But there are no tigers here.” “There you see!””

-“Corona: an epidemic of mass panic”, Deadly Medicines, 21st March 2020 []